Brock Purdy went Joe Montana, at least in a statistical sense.
Patrick Mahomes isn’t going Patrick Mahomes.
Russell Wilson is going back to the kitchen (to cook, obviously).
Justin Herbert is going seemingly nowhere.
Jordan Love is going “new Jordan Love?”
And Tommy DeVito is going more than Danny DeVito jokes.
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Here’s my weekly look at how quarterbacks stand using traditional statistics like passer rating, along with advanced metrics like Expected Points Added (EPA) per dropback, via TruMedia, to provide a number-based outlook of the state of the position. Quarterbacks are listed by EPA per dropback.
I’ve expanded the rankings a bit to include quarterbacks with only a couple of starts. So the parameter for being ranked is a minimum of 100 dropbacks this season.
I’ll also give a sneak peek at the upcoming matchups using EPA per dropback for the quarterbacks and the defenses they will face in Week 12.
Nos. 1-10
| player | EPA/DB ovr | Epa/db wk 11 | Psr Rt ovr | Psr rt wk 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
0.30 (1) | 0.54 (1) | 115.1 (1) | 158.3 (1) | |
0.18 (2) | -0.05 (17) | 106.0 (2) | 103.0 (10) | |
0.17 (3) | 0.20 (7) | 104.0 (4) | 95.2 (13) | |
0.17 (4) | 0.26 (4) | 99.5 (7) | 99.3 (12) | |
0.15 (5) | 0.27 (3) | 97.6 (9) | 108.2 (7) | |
0.15 (6) | 0.14 (9) | 99.3 (8) | 85.0 (16) | |
0.10 (7) | -0.25 (25) | 93.8 (12) | 71.6 (20) | |
0.10 (8) | 0.01 (16) | 96.1 (10) | 68.3 (22) | |
0.09 (9) | -0.21 (23) | 94.8 (11) | 64.6 (23) | |
0.06 (10) | IR | 103.8 (5) | IR |
Purdy became the first 49ers quarterback to post a perfect passer rating on at least 19 attempts since Joe Montana in 1989. Let that sink in.
Purdy produced back-to-back weeks of career-high passer ratings in Weeks 10 and 11. That’s not easy considering his previous career high in only 13 regular season starts stood at 144.4 in the Niners’ Week 5 blowout of the Dallas Cowboys. In Week 10, Purdy shredded the Jacksonville Jaguars for a 148.9 rating. In Week 11, he put up a perfect rating. Purdy has yielded a passer rating of 111.0 or better in 10 of his 15 career regular season starts.
Neither Mahomes, nor Jalen Hurts compiled even average rates in the Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl rematch on Monday. It was Hurts’ lowest EPA rate and second-lowest passer rating of the season.
For Mahomes, it was his second-lowest EPA rate and third-lowest passer rating in 2023. But for Mahomes, his pass catchers let him down with four dropped passes, including the potential game-winning touchdown by Marquez Valdes-Scantling late in the fourth quarter. Mahomes ranks tied for third with 19 dropped passes by his teammates this season, which actually matches his total at this point in 2022 and four fewer than in 2021:
Chiefs dropped passes in Weeks 1-11
- 2020: 19
- 2021: 23
- 2022: 19
- 2023: 19
Regardless, Mahomes’ rates are at a single-season low through 11 weeks, which continues the trend we saw in Weeks 1-4:
Patrick Mahomes from Weeks 1-11 (Starting career)
| Year | EPA/db | psr rt |
|---|---|---|
2018 | 0.36 | 117.9 |
2019 | 0.3 | 110.0 |
2020 | 0.31 | 114.3 |
2021 | 0.13 | 94.7 |
2022 | 0.33 | 107.3 |
2023 | 0.10 | 93.8 |
Tua Tagovailoa has seesawed the past four weeks with passer ratings around 87.0 or 100.0 in his past four games. He’s also chalked up three negative EPA rates in the past four games. The two tougher outings occurred on the road against the Eagles and the Chiefs. The Miami Dolphins quarterback has certainly played at a Pro Bowl level this year. It’s when tougher opponents arrive that still could be a concern for Tua and Dolphins fans.
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Week 11 marked the first time Dak Prescott watched his passer rating dip below 109.3 in the past five games. Gasp! Not really. The Dallas Cowboys signal-caller has been superb during the five-game stretch, posting a 0.30 EPA rate and 118.7 passer rating from Weeks 6-11 (bye week in Week 7).
I believe the Los Angeles Chargers just like to toy with Herbert’s hopes and dreams. Another week of “What more can Herbert do?” came in Week 11. Six drops by his pass catchers, arguably two touchdowns, proved costly for the Chargers in their loss to the Green Bay Packers.
Coincidence Josh Allen compiled some of his best rates since early in the season on the heels of an offensive coordinator change? Maybe. And against the New York Jets, who’ve been very good against great quarterbacks this season? Maybe as well. Allen tallied his best EPA rate since Week 5 and best passer rating since his perfect day in Week 4. This came with only four catches for 27 yards from Stefon Diggs and an O-for by Gabe Davis.
C.J. Stroud had an adventurous Week 11 with two touchdowns and three interceptions in the Houston Texans’ win over the Arizona Cardinals. But the rookie yielded a good EPA rate thanks to his 72.7 third-down conversion rate on pass plays. That’s the fifth-highest rate of any QB in a game this season. Add another reason to believe in Stroud.
Like Stroud, a very good day converting third downs (66.7 percent, No. 2 in Week 11) helped Jared Goff — barely — tally a positive EPA rate in Week 11 after throwing three interceptions in the win over the Chicago Bears. Goff had his worst passer rating since a Week 5 loss to the New England Patriots last season. That was before Goff and the Lions started taking off.
Nos. 11-20
| player | EPA/DB ovr | Epa/db wk 11 | Psr Rt ovr | Psr rt wk 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
0.06 (11) | -0.14 (22) | 80.8 (28) | 70.6 (21) | |
0.05 (12) | -0.13 (20) | 91.5 (16) | 76.7 (19) | |
0.03 (13) | 0.26 (5) | 83.8 (26) | 108.5 (6) | |
0.01 (14) | 0.08 (12) | 89.7 (19) | 94.4 (14) | |
0.00 (15) | 0.24 (6) | 100.1 (6) | 121.3 (4) | |
-0.01 (16) | 0.05 (13) | 104.3 (3) | 106.7 (8) | |
-0.02 (17) | 0.10 (11) | 84.7 (23) | 80.3 (18) | |
-0.03 (18) | 0.02 (14) | 91.0 (17) | 100.4 (11) | |
-0.04 (19) | BYE | 89.8 (18) | BYE | |
-0.04 (20) | -0.14 (21) | 88.6 (22) | 62.7 (25) |
Matthew Stafford amassed his second-lowest EPA rate and third-lowest passer rating this year, and the Los Angeles Rams still pulled out the win against the Seattle Seahawks. Stafford has a 73.4 passer rating in his last three starts after posting a 107.3 passer rating in a Week 6 win over the Cardinals.
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Baker Mayfield felt the wrath of a revived Niners defense in Week 11. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB produced his worst EPA rate and passer rating since the team’s Week 6 loss to the Lions. This coming off a Weeks 9-10 stretch during which he yielded a 0.29 EPA rate and 111.1 passer rating.
It’s the second time in three games that Love compiled a passer rating north of 108.0. Probably not much of a coincidence that the Packers won both of those games. Love still managed a 0.15 EPA rate in a Week 10 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. He’s had a 0.18 EPA rate in the past three weeks, sixth in the NFL.
The Seahawks had good Geno Smith before an injury sidelined him during the second half of their Week 11 loss to the Rams. He even gutted it out to give Seattle a shot to win the game in the closing moments. It’s the fourth time in five weeks that Smith produced a 0.04 EPA rate or better.
Lamar Jackson’s performance might have gotten lost following Joe Burrow’s injury. His Week 11 outing broke an EPA rate skid in which the Baltimore Ravens passer compiled a -0.23 mark in Weeks 8-10. The Ravens won two of those games showing how good overall this team can play. Losing tight end Mark Andrews to injury, though, will be quite the hurdle moving forward.
Josh Dobbs looked a little skittish at times in the Minnesota Vikings’ Week 11 loss to the Denver Broncos. Still, he carries a 0.13 EPA rate and 94.4 passer rating in his three games with the team.
Derek Carr’s status is a question mark in Week 12 after suffering a concussion and right shoulder injury in Week 10. The Jameis Winston experience after Carr left yielded two TD passes, two interceptions, a -0.10 EPA rate and 59.1 passer rating.
It’s pretty wild how poorly Sam Howell plays against the New York Giants. The Washington Commanders quarterback amassed a combined -0.24 EPA rate and 61.7 passer rating in the two losses to New York this season. Remove those two games from Howell’s docket and he’s tallied a 0.01 EPA rate and 95.2 passer rating in the other nine starts in 2023. Crazytown!
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